GIGA Focus | Latin America | Number 1 | January 2026 | ISSN 1862-3573

Trump’s claim to North and South America as the United States’ exclusive zone of interest will mark 2026. The military strike on Venezuela leaves the country’s political situation in limbo, while the US president unleashes an avalanche of threats against further countries, from Colombia to Cuba, Mexico, and – to the shock of European leaders – Greenland.

• The post-Maduro leadership in Venezuela may have more negotiating power than the images of the US military strike suggest. The US will need Venezuela’s political and military elites to “run the country.” Rather than being a quick solution, the strike marks the start of a new round of coercive negotiation.
• Latin American countries have a strong interest in maintaining commercial and investment ties to China. Trump’s revival of the Monroe Doctrine will not pass without pushback.
• For Mexico, the upcoming renegotiation of the trade agreement with the US and Canada marks a crucial test for Sheinbaum’s so far remarkably successful course. Brazil’s presidential elections in October will be a watershed moment for the entire region.

• The continent’s right-wing forces will seek to maximise political gains from hardline law and order policies. At the same time, courting Trump’s endorsement will be a divisive issue within the conservative and far-right camp.

• The loss of Venezuelan oil supplies will dramatically worsen living conditions in Cuba. However, the prospect of US military action is likely to have a demobilising effect on ordinary people there.

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